Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Interesting Facts

• The book unveils the remarkable world of people who can predict the future more accurately than professional experts and intelligence agencies—they are called "superforecasters," and their gift is based not on intuition but on the ability to think flexibly and critically.
• The author explores the phenomenon of collective intelligence, showing how a group of independent thinkers, united as a team, can produce forecasts that surpass even the most experienced individuals.
• The book presents real examples of international forecasting competitions, where ordinary people, armed with common sense and meticulous analysis, outperformed renowned specialists and world-class analysts.
• One of the book's key findings is that the art of foresight is not an innate talent, but is built on discipline, curiosity, and a willingness to admit mistakes, making forecasting a craft accessible to all.
• Readers discover how even the most complex and uncertain events can be broken down into simple components and, step by step, approached as if assembling a mosaic from scattered fragments of information.