The Black Swan

Methodology and Conclusions

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, where the author develops the idea of the influence of highly unlikely and unpredictable events on the course of history, the economy, and people's lives. Taleb introduces the concept of a "black swan" to describe such events: rare, extreme, and unpredictable, yet with enormous consequences. Taleb's methodology involves critiquing current methods of forecasting the future, demonstrating that many significant changes in the world bring surprises that are difficult or impossible to predict using standard statistical methods and theoretical approaches. An important conclusion is the idea that for sustainable development and risk minimization, one should consider the possibility of "black swans" and build systems capable of withstanding such shocks, thus being ready for the unexpected and not striving for precision in an unpredictable world.