The Black Swan

Implementation Notes

• Do not rely on forecasts that ignore the existence of black swans - low probability events with massive consequences.
• It is important to build systems and processes in such a way that they are resilient or even benefit from extreme events.
• It is necessary to distinguish the unpredictability of a black swan from risk and take this into account in decision-making processes.
• Keep in mind that statistical methods are based on past data, and the more extreme the event, the less effective they are.
• It is useful to develop skepticism towards expert opinions, which often underestimate the possibility of black swans.
• It is important to maintain a financial safety net to withstand the negative consequences of unforeseen events.
• Diversification of investments is recommended as a way to reduce the risk of losses from black swans.
• Always be ready for changes and adapt to them, rather than striving to create an illusion of stability.
• It is important to develop the ability to see opportunities in crisis situations and extreme changes.